With industrial manufacturing for February (0% m/m vs +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), now we have the next image of key indicators adopted by the NBER BCDC, plus S&P Market Intelligence month-to-month GDP.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), Bloomberg consensus of three/17 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch by way of FRED, S&P World/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2023 launch), and creator’s calculations.
Weekly Financial Indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Inventory) for knowledge obtainable by March 11 signifies 0.96% for y/y development. GDPNow as of yesterday signifies Q1 development of three.2% q/q SAAR, whereas S&P Market Intelligence/previously IHS Markit has raised its monitoring estimate to 0.6% (q/q SAAR), up from -0.5% a month in the past.
