Based on some mixture measure, there was a slowdown in 2022H1, however GDP+ says not.
Determine 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 1/27 (crimson sq.), GDO (tan), GDO estimate for This autumn (tan triangle), GDP+ (teal), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. 2022Q4 GDO based mostly on GDI the place internet working surplus set to equal 2021Q3 worth. GDP+ degree calculated by iterating progress charges on 2019Q4 precise GDP. Supply: BEA, 2022Q4 advance, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas GDP and GDO declined in H1, it’s fascinating that neither ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers and consumption declined.
Determine 2: Consumption (blue, left scale), and ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers (tan, proper scale), all in bn. Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2022Q4 advance launch.
In each (NBER-defined) recessions since 1967, ultimate gross sales at all times fell. Consumption too, aside from the 2001 recession (the WSJ January survey median response signifies the recession begins in 2023Q1, contra GDPNow as of 1/27). In different phrases, it doesn’t seem the recession is right here but; nor does it seem that there was a recession in 2022H1 given the earlier, employment traits, and the Sahm rule (contra Kopits).
