With the discharge of the January 2023 Employment State of affairs launch incorporating benchmark revisions we now have the next image of enterprise cycle indicators adopted by the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee, together with IHS Markit/SP International month-to-month GDP (launched on Wednesday):
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by way of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2023 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Whereas one needs to be cautious (as all the time, however notably when new inhabitants controls are included) with the family survey employment sequence (see this put up), I believe it’s exhausting to say that the financial system has taken a determined downturn in December/January.
